As Kenya’s Standard Gauge Railway marks its seventh year of operation, the debate over Chinese infrastructure lending in Africa is being reshaped by new data showing the railway is finally approaching operational profitability — challenging the dominant “debt trap” narrative that has defined Western analysis of Belt and Road projects.
Kenya Railways Corporation reported a 34% increase in both passenger and cargo revenue for the fiscal year ending March 2026, driven by the extension of freight services to Naivasha and growing commuter demand on the Nairobi-Mombasa corridor.
However, critics point out that the railway still cannot service its debt without government subsidies, and that the original plan to extend the line to Uganda and beyond has been quietly shelved due to financing constraints. The total project cost of $5.3 billion remains a significant burden on Kenya’s balance sheet.
The debate matters beyond Kenya: it shapes how African governments assess future infrastructure partnerships with China, the US, and the European Union, all of whom are competing for influence on the continent.
